Bob Costello, Chief Economist and Senior VP of International Trade and Security Policy at the American Trucking Associations (ATA), delivered his 2025 Economic Industry Review. He outlined how these proposed tariffs would affect the trucking sector, from increased equipment costs to significant changes in freight patterns.

Tariffs and Their Ripple Effect

One of the proposed tariffs’ most surprising impacts is how they may alter freight patterns. Costello touched on the potential fees suggested by the U.S. Trade Representative’s office, which include up to $1 million per port call for Chinese vessel operators and $1.5 million for shipping companies using Chinese-built vessels.

Costello explained, “It absolutely could change freight patterns. I think it’s a really big deal.” Such high charges could discourage shipping lines from making multiple port calls, potentially consolidating their stops. “What they’re probably going to do is dump all of the cargo in one port and move on,” Costello noted.

This shift impacts not only imports but also export activities along the East Coast. Smaller ports that play a vital role in local industries may suffer. For instance, factories in Alabama rely on the Port of Mobile for exports. “There’s a good chance a lot of these ocean carriers are not even going to make that call and not go to Mobile anymore,” he added.

Consumer Behavior Drives Freight Patterns

Costello predicted a gradual return to standard freight patterns in 2025, following consumer-driven spending habits that delayed economic recovery. He warned, however, that implementing additional tariffs could trigger another economic downturn.

The proposed tariffs include an additional 10% on goods from China, 25% on steel and aluminum, and 25% on Canadian and Mexican imports. The latter is particularly concerning for the trucking sector as it directly affects the costs of tractors and trailers.

“If it in fact goes through … for any substantial amount of time, I think that brings in a real risk of macro recession, no doubt about it,” Costello stated. He emphasized that tariffs function as taxes, and price increases on goods will ultimately lead to consumers purchasing fewer items, dragging down freight volumes.

This follows the trend during the pandemic-fueled freight recession, where spending on goods skyrocketed due to limited entertainment and travel options. “We all remember; it was not fun. So, what did people start doing during that period? They just started buying stuff,” Costello recalled. Terms like “revenge travel” became popular as consumers shifted their focus from goods to experiences, attending concerts, or taking multiple vacations.

Now, with consumer spending normalizing and the economy showing signs of stabilization, the trucking industry faces an adjustment period.

Market Stabilization and Economic Outlook

Despite some turbulence, positive trends are on the horizon for the freight sector. Costello projects a 3.3% increase in goods spending and a 2.2% rise in spending on experiences this year. Notably, inflation for goods is currently lower than for services, encouraging higher spending on physical products.

Additionally, factory output, which declined by 0.4% in 2023 and 2024, is expected to rebound with a growth of 1.3% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026. Although some subsectors may see slower recovery, overall manufacturing activity is anticipated to drive freight demand upwards.

The housing market also shows promise. Costello forecasted consistent growth in existing home sales, prompting an uptick in expenditures for home improvements. Meanwhile, new housing starts, estimated at one million, are likely to generate substantial freight opportunities.

“It wasn’t like the boom of the pandemic, but it’s certainly much better, and I think that is absolutely going to help,” Costello concluded.

Source: Commercial Carrier Journal

Image Source: Angel Coker Jones

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“ATRI’s RAC members serve a critical role in identifying and prioritizing the trucking industry’s top research needs,” said Rebecca Brewster, ATRI president. “We received over 160 applications from individuals interested in serving as RAC members. We congratulate all those appointed by the ATRI Board to serve in this important role and look forward to working with them.”

Each year, RAC members are responsible for setting research priorities that address critical issues impacting the trucking sector. Representing a wide range of stakeholders—including motor carriers, suppliers, drivers, shippers, law enforcement, academia, and government—the committee reflects the diverse nature of the industry.

Andy Owens, CEO of A&M Transport, has been named Chairman of the Research Advisory Committee for this term. The full list of 2025-2026 RAC members includes a remarkable lineup of professionals bringing their expertise to support ATRI’s mission.

Industry Leaders Appointed as 2025-2026 RAC Members

• Lindsay Bur, Director of Data Science and Economics, American Trucking Associations

• Robb McCaig, Senior Director of Spend and Analytics, Trimac

• Sheri Call, President and CEO, Washington Trucking Associations

• Steve McKeta, Director of Private Fleet Maintenance, Walmart Transportation

• Jeremy Carmichael, Vice President of Operations, Ruan Transportation Management Systems

• Carson Davidenko, Executive Advisor – Custom Critical Operations, FedEx Freight

• Vallie Dugas, Vice President and General Counsel, Melton Truck Lines

• George Gerth, Vice President of Safety, Carter Express Inc.

• Frank Granieri, COO of Supply Chain Solutions, A. Duie Pyle

• Ben Greenberg, President and CEO, North Carolina Trucking Association

• Josh Hankins, Senior Vice President of Safety, Security, and Driver Personnel, J.B. Hunt Transport Inc.

• Robert Howard, President and COO, Dohrn Transfer Company

• Rich Johnson, Vice President of Business Readiness, Werner Enterprises

• Aravind Kailas, Advanced Technology Policy Director, Volvo Group North America

• Andrew King, Assistant Director of Operations, OOIDA Foundation

• Tim Kordula, Vice President of Risk Management, Skinner Transfer Corporation

• Anne-Marie Forbes Lynn, Director of Business Development and Marketing, U.S. Legal Services

• Mark Manera, Founder and CEO, Offshift

• Chad Marsilio, COO, PGT Trucking Inc.

• Robert Meyer, Vice President of Corporate Transportation, UPS

• Graig Moran, President and Co-Owner, Brown Dog Carriers

• Brad Nelson, President, FreedomTrucks of America

• Randy Obermeyer, Vice President of Safety and Maintenance, Online Transport

• Misti Olszewski, Vice President of Enterprise Safety, Covenant Logistics

• Ted Perryman, Managing Attorney, Roberts Perryman P.C.

• Emily Plummer, America’s Road Team Captain, Prime Inc.

• Todd Reiser, Senior Vice President, Lockton Companies

• Joseph Romero, Captain, Commercial Vehicle Enforcement Bureau, New Mexico State Police

• Robyn Smith, Director of Driver Relations, May Trucking Company

• Glissel Soliz, Senior Director of Transportation Operations and 3PL, Coca-Cola North America

• Sam Waltzer, Director of SmartWay and Supply Chain Programs, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

• Kyle Weaver, Assistant General Counsel, K.L. Breeden & Sons

• Adam Whitney, Vice President of Cummins On-Highway Sales in Canada, Cummins Inc.

• Jeffrey Wojtowicz, Senior Transportation Engineer/Operations Management, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

• Lynette Woodie, Manager of Loss Prevention and Administration, ArcBest Corporation

These members bring a wealth of knowledge and expertise that will help ATRI address emerging challenges and opportunities in the trucking industry. With a clear focus on innovation and collaboration, this RAC cohort is poised to help shape the industry’s future.

Source: The Trucker

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